Real Estate Market Report April 2024

April Market Report

Sales Activity:

In April 2024, there were a total of 148 residential unit sales reported in Lakelands West (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach). The number of sold units increased by +15.6% from the previous month (128 Unit Sales in March 2024) and down -11.5% from the number of sales this same time last year (165 unit sales in April 2023).

The number of homes sold in Southern Georgian Bay (Lakelands West) compared by “month” and “year-to-date” remains below historical seasonal averages this spring. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) provides the following reference data to compare the number of homes sold in April 2024 to past periods:

April 2024 compared to April 2022 = -30.5%
April 2024 compared to April 2021 = -52.9%
April 2024 compared to April 2019 = -23.7%
April 2024 compared to April 2017 = -44.6%
April 2024 compared to April 2014 = -27.1%

While the number of homes sold (unit sales) remains below seasonal averages, the analytics report from real estate software provider, BrokerBay, further confirms that the number of showing appointments has reduced by a comparable percentage (-13.5%). Based on Realtor feedback, although buyers are viewing homes, it is a common occurrence that the buyer’s ability to purchase is dependent on a sale of the buyer’s current residence. Other locations and markets in Ontario have been experiencing a similar reduction in unit sales this spring and therefore parts of the province are in a holding pattern at the moment.

Based on recent media reports, it is anticipated that the Bank of Canada will potentially start to reduce rates in 2024. Homeowners with mortgage renewals and buyers alike are waiting for the next BOC announcement on June 5, 2024. Reducing the rate will help renew consumer confidence and increase overall sales activity back to seasonal averages.

Inventory:

The number of new listings in April 2024 (505 new listings) for all of Lakelands West areas increased by +28.8% over this same time last year (392 new listings in April 2023). And month to month, the number of new listings decreased slightly by -2.1% from the previous month of March 2024 (516 new listings).

As a year-over-year comparison, the increase of new inventory by +28.8% and a reduction in the number of homes sold by -11.5% has essentially created an “apparent difference” of -40.3% in the overall market activity. Meaning that with more listings and fewer sales, the greater difference can feel evident for some in the marketplace.

A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 43 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout April 2024 and a total of 288 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 15% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 85% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of April 2024. Realtor-to-Realtor contact and systems combined with professional marketing continue to be of the utmost importance for sellers in the current market.

Included below is a list of current absorption rates for each of the local municipalities:

The Blue Mountains: 8%
Clearview: 21%
Collingwood: 19%
Georgian Bay Township: 18%
Grey Highlands: 18%
Meaford: 9%
Tiny Township: 13%
Wasaga Beach: 15%

The absorption rate in Southern Georgian Bay areas statistically, in general, remains a buyer market based on the supply and demand in the region. In April, the closest municipality to finding a balance was Collingwood at 21% and the market with the lowest absorption rate was The Blue Mountains at 8% (approximately 9/10 sellers unfortunately had not completed a sale in April).

Value:

The average sale price year-to-date in April 2024 for all of Lakelands West was $861,208 for a residential residence (all residential – The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach).

In comparison to previous years, the CREA report indicates that the average “year-to-date” sales price in April is comparable to April 2023 at +0.7% and down -18.7% from April 2022. Historically the average price in 2024 remains up +3.4% from April 2021, and up +59.7% from April 2019.

However, it is important to note that the average value is very difficult to accurately conclude in the first months of a calendar year. There are typically not enough unit sales to establish a true value in each marketplace. Therefore RE/MAX By The Bay Brokerage additionally monitors the “12-month average sales price” in addition to the monthly and year-to-date.

According to the 12-month average sale price figures, the average sales price concluded the following month-over-month change from March 2024 to April 2024:

Wasaga Beach -0.4% ($813,086 in March 2024 vs $809,847 in April 2024)

Collingwood -0.2% ($963,425 in March 2024 vs $961,467 in April 2024)

The Blue Mountains -0.68% ($1,456,367 in March 2024 vs $1,446,526 in April 2024)

Clearview +2.57% ($977,976 in March 2024 vs $1,003,098 in April 2024)

In summary, most of the Southern Georgian Bay municipalities concluded little change in the average price for each area with the exception of Clearview Township. However, it is important to note that one particular luxury home sale in the Nottawa area had a significant impact on increasing the average for Clearview in April 2024.

The latest reports indicate that the “monthly” sale-to-list average ratio in April 2024 was as follows in each municipality:

Town of Blue Mountains: 96.3%
Clearview: 97.0%
Collingwood: 96.0%
Georgian Bay Township: 95.4%
Grey Highlands: 97.4%
Medford: 94.7%
Tiny Township: 96.5%
Wasaga Beach 98.1%

Note: In March and April there has been an increase and improvement in the sale-to-list ratio (a benefit towards sellers), however, we believe the increase in the sale-to-list ratio is reflective of an increased number of price reduction(s) over the past few months, and sellers now selecting to price “in the market“. This helps reduce the negotiation of what could be considered an overpriced listing and results directly connected to this statistic.

Attached to this update you will find a detailed report providing the average monthly, year-to-date, and 12-month average sales price for a number of the local areas.

Your GO TO Team remains available to provide additional information and to meet all your real estate needs. Please call, text or email us today!

Please click the following link to view the entire Market Report for this month: REMAX_MarketReport_APRIL-2024-1

Ron Puccini

Jane Puccini

Real Estate Market Report April 2024

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Ron Puccini

Jane Puccini