August Market Report
Sales Activity:
In August 2024, there were a total of 124 residential unit sales reported in Lakelands West (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach). The number of sold units decreased by -7% from the previous month (134 Unit Sales in July 2024), and down -17% from the number of sales this same time last year (149 unit sales in August 2023). The number of homes sold in Southern Georgian Bay is down from the previous five months and from this same time last year by comparison. This is despite the Bank of Canada (BOC) having cut key interest rates in both June (-0.25) and July (-0.25). And more recently the BOC reduced the rate by another 0.25 on September 4th, 2024.
The number of homes sold in Southern Georgian Bay (Lakelands West) compared by “month” and “year-to-date” remains below historical seasonal averages this spring. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) provides the following reference data to compare the number of homes sold in August 2024 to past periods:
- August 2024 compared to August 2022 = -15.3%
- August 2024 compared to August 2021 = -45.6%
- August 2024 compared to August 2019 = -25.5%
- August 2024 compared to August 2017 = -36.7%
- August 2024 compared to August 2014 = -24.7%
The number of homes being sold in all of Lakelands West (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach) is on average down 15-45% in comparison to the previous spring markets (2014-2022).
Inventory:
The number of new listings in August 2024 (409 new listings) for all of Lakeland’s West areas has increased by +4% over this same time last year (413 new listings in August 2023). And month to month, the number of new listings in the marketplace decreased by -5% from the previous month of July 2024 (431 new listings).
An interesting observation is that although the number of homes coming onto the market is slowing down (new inventory) in Collingwood, Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach, the absorption rate remained the same in both July and August in those municipalities. The numbers have changed, but the decrease in new listings and the decrease in the number of unit sales concluded the same ratio as the previous month in July 2024 (more below).
Unfortunately, the market data is concluding that there is not a buyer for every home for sale at this time. Realtor-to-Realtor contact and MLS systems combined with professional marketing continue to be of the utmost importance for sellers in the current market.
Included below is a list of current absorption rates for each of the local municipalities:
- The Blue Mountains: 6%
- Clearview: 10%
- Collingwood: 13%
- Georgian Bay Township: 9%
- Grey Highlands: 10%
- Meaford: 14%
- Tiny Township: 10%
- Wasaga Beach: 13%
The absorption rate in Southern Georgian Bay areas statistically remains a buyer market based on the supply and demand in the Western Region. In August, the closest municipality to finding a balance was Meaford at 14% and the market with the lowest absorption rate was The Blue Mountains at 6% (93% of sellers did not complete a sale last month in The Blue Mountains).
Value:
The average sale price year-to-date in August 2024 for all of Lakelands West was $843,890 for a residential residence (all residential – The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach). This is a decrease of -0.74% from the previous month ($850,163 in July 2024).
In comparison to previous years, the CREA report indicates that the average “year-to-date” sales price in August is down slightly from August 2023 (-1.6%) and down -14.8% from August 2022. Historically the average price in 2024 is comparable by -0.4% in August 2021, and up +58.3% from August 2019.
Locally, the average “year-to-date” average sale price for “all residential” has concluded the following change from July to August 2024:
- Wasaga Beach, July $782,791 vs August $768,229 (-1.86%)
- Collingwood, July $934,826 vs August $935,735 (+0.1%)
- The Blue Mountains, July $1,390,721 vs August $1,372,322 (-1.32%)
- Clearview Township, July $1,040,133 vs August $1,030,038 (-0.97%)
In summary, Wasaga Beach, The Blue Mountains, and Clearview all concluded a decrease of approximately -0.97% to -1.86% in the average value from the end of July to the end of August 2024. The Town of Collingwood maintained its value with a small increase of +0.1% during the same time period.
The latest reports indicate that the “monthly” sale-to-list average ratio in August 2024 was as follows in each municipality:
- Town of Blue Mountains: 95.9%
- Clearview: 96.9%
- Collingwood: 96.1%
- Georgian Bay Township: 94.6%
- Grey Highlands: 96.0%
- Medford: 94.2%
- Tiny Township: 95.5%
- Wasaga Beach 96.7%
From May to August the Town of Meaford has reported the lowest sale-to-list ratio in Lakelands West at 94.2% (concluding the largest negotiations at a 5.8% reduction on average). The average for all aforementioned areas in Southern Georgian Bay is currently 95.74% with an average negotiation ratio of 4.26% at this time.
