Real Estate Market Report December 2024

The number of new listings in December 2024 (210 new listings) for all of the Western Region of the One Point Association of REALTORS® (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach) had increased by +32 (listings) over December 2023. Notably, this could be in part credited to the recent MLS data merger, and naturally the increase in unit sales in December (2023 vs 2024) and visible “sold signs” can often motivate property owners to enter the market based on activity.

At the end of December 2024 (year-end), there were 1,076 reported “active listings” entering January 2025. The One Point Association of REALTORS® estimated the “months of inventory” available in the Western Region of Southern Georgian Bay to be approximately 9.2 months of supply.

A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 37 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout December 2024 and a total of 309 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 12% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 88% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of December 2024.

Another comparison is the Town of Collingwood where there was a total of 30 unit sales throughout December 2024 and a total of 306 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Collingwood is approximately 10% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 90% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of December 2024 in Collingwood.

Unfortunately, the market data continued to conclude that there was not a buyer for every home for sale in 2024. Although the absorption rate did fluctuate in each municipality throughout 2024, the highest (most balanced) ratio was Grey Highlands in September at 35%. The lowest (Western Region) was The Blue Mountains at 6% in both July and August.

Realtor-to-Realtor contact and MLS systems combined with professional marketing continue to be of the utmost importance for sellers in the current market.

Included below is a list of current absorption rates for each of the local municipalities:

• The Blue Mountains: 9%
• Clearview: 14%
• Collingwood: 10%
• Georgian Bay Township: 9%
• Grey Highlands: 10%
• Meaford: 10%
• Tiny Township: 8%
• Wasaga Beach: 12%

The Bank of Canada started to reduce the overnight rate in June 2024 and continued until December 2024 at the end of the year. As the number of unit sales increases and inventory depletes, the absorption rate will start to increase with the potential to become a more balanced market. Granted we know from the past, that shifting markets tend to move quickly and rarely do you hear a reference to being in a “balanced market“. Although it is statistically unlikely that we will be in a seller market any time soon, the majority of market analysts are anticipating a moderate increase in both the number of unit sales and the average sales price throughout 2025. The threat of US tariffs could be a factor for construction costs that will ultimately risk affecting new home sales in 2025. Historically, increased construction costs only help drive increased consumer demand in the residential resale market. This combined with lower interest rates will most likely support the market analysts’ predictions as we approach the spring market in 2025.

Value: