July Market Report
Sales Activity:
The number of homes sold in Southern Georgian Bay (Lakelands West) compared by “month” and “year-to-date” remains below historical seasonal averages this spring. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) provides the following reference data to compare the number of homes sold in July 2024 to past periods:
- July 2024 compared to July 2022 = -26.4%
- July 2024 compared to July 2021 = -35.6%
- July 2024 compared to July 2019 = -42.0%
- July 2024 compared to July 2017 = -22.5%
- July 2024 compared to July 2014 = -47.5%
The number of homes being sold in all of Lakelands West (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach) is on average down 26-47% in comparison to the previous spring markets (2014-2022).
Inventory:
A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 40 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout July 2024 and a total of 317 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 13% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 87% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of July 2024.
Another comparison is Collingwood where there was a total of 41 unit sales throughout July 2024 and a total of 305 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Collingwood is approximately 13% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 87% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of July 2024 in Collingwood.
Unfortunately, the market data is concluding that there is not a buyer for every home for sale at this time. Realtor-to-Realtor contact and MLS systems combined with professional marketing continue to be of the utmost importance for sellers in the current market.
Included below is a list of current absorption rates for each of the local municipalities:
- The Blue Mountains: 6%
- Clearview: 11%
- Collingwood: 13%
- Georgian Bay Township: 6%
- Grey Highlands: 7%
- Meaford: 21%
- Tiny Township: 15%
- Wasaga Beach: 13%
The absorption rate in Southern Georgian Bay areas statistically remains a buyer market based on the supply and demand in the Western Region. In July, the closest municipality to finding a balance was Meaford at 21% and the market with the lowest absorption rate was The Blue Mountains at 6% (93% of sellers did not complete a sale last month in The Blue Mountains).
In comparison to previous years, the CREA report indicates that the average “year-to-date” sales price in July is down slightly from July 2023 (-1.3%), however, down -15.6% from July 2022. Historically the average price in 2024 remains up +1.4% from July 2021, and up +58.7% from July 2019.
Locally, the average “year-to-date” average sale price concluded the following change from June to July 2024:
- Wasaga Beach, June $790,681 vs July $782,791 (-1.00%)
- Collingwood, June $945,898 vs July $934,826 (-1.17%)
- The Blue Mountains, June $1,341,755 vs July $1,390,721 (+3.65%)
- Clearview Township, June $1,028,527 vs July $1,040,133 (+1.13%)
- Town of Blue Mountains: 94.7%
- Clearview: 97.2%
- Collingwood: 96.4%
- Georgian Bay Township: 93.1%
- Grey Highlands: 96.4%
- Medford: 94.1%
- Tiny Township: 97.7%
- Wasaga Beach 96.6%
From May to July the Town of Meaford has reported the lowest sale-to-list ratio in Lakelands West at 94.1% (concluding the largest negotiations at a 5.9% reduction on average).
