Real Estate Market Report May 2024

The number of new listings in May 2024 (593 new listings) for all of Lakeland’s West areas increased by +17% over this same time last year (508 new listings in May 2023). And month to month, the number of new listings increased by the same +17% from the previous month of April 2024 (505 new listings).

As a year-over-year comparison, the increase of new inventory by +17% and a reduction in the number of homes sold by -18% has essentially created an “apparent difference” of -35% in the overall market activity. Meaning that with more listings and fewer sales, the greater difference can feel evident for some in the marketplace.

A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 62 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout May 2024 and a total of 318 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 19% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 81% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of May 2024.

Another comparison is Collingwood where there was a total of 40 unit sales throughout May 2024 and a total of 296 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 14% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 86% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of May 2024.

Unfortunately, there is not a buyer for every home for sale at this time. Realtor-to-Realtor contact and MLS systems combined with professional marketing continue to be of the utmost importance for sellers in the current market.

Included below is a list of current absorption rates for each of the local municipalities:

• The Blue Mountains: 8%
• Clearview: 18%
• Collingwood: 14%
• Georgian Bay Township: 2%
• Grey Highlands: 13%
• Meaford: 20%
• Tiny Township: 11%
• Wasaga Beach: 19%

The absorption rate in Southern Georgian Bay areas statistically, in general, remains a buyer market based on the supply and demand in the western region. In May, the closest municipality to finding a balance was Wasaga Beach and Meaford at 19-20% and the market with the lowest absorption rate was The Blue Mountains at 8% (9/10 sellers, unfortunately, had not completed a sale in May).

The average sale price year-to-date in May 2024 for all of Lakelands West was $869,603 for a residential residence (all residential – The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach). This is an increase of +0.97% from the previous month ($861,208 in April 2024).

In comparison to previous years, the CREA report indicates that the average “year-to-date” sales price in May has now increased +3.1% from May 2023, however, still down -16.4% from May 2022. Historically the average price in 2024 remains up +3.7% from May 2021, and up +62.8% from May 2019.

RE/MAX By The Bay Brokerage additionally monitors the “12-month average sales price” in addition to the monthly and year-to-date averages. According to the 12-month average sale price figures, the average sales price concluded the following month-over-month change from April 2024 to May 2024:

Wasaga Beach +0.48% ($809,847 in April 2024 vs $813,767 in May 2024)

Collingwood +0.97% ($961,467 in April 2024 vs $970,821 in May 2024)

The Blue Mountains +2.88% ($1,446,526 in April 2024 vs $1,488,209 in May 2024)

Clearview +2.46% ($1,003,098 in April 2024 vs $1,027,745 in May 2024)

In summary, most of the Southern Georgian Bay municipalities had concluded an increase in value from the previous month this spring. Interestingly the increase is despite the low absorption rate and the increase in value from April to May came before the Bank of Canada rate cut announcement on June 5, 2024, this past week. We know statistically fewer buyers are purchasing in the marketplace in comparison to previous years, and we know based on recorded BrokerBay showing activity and feedback that although fewer buyers are even looking at this time, they will purchase and pay (value) for the “right home” that meets their search criteria. Offers conditional upon the sale of the purchaser’s property remain common and many of those sales have proceeded to a pending transaction in May.

The latest reports indicate that the “monthly” sale-to-list average ratio in May 2024 was as follows in each municipality:

• Town of Blue Mountains: 95.8%
• Clearview: 97.9%
• Collingwood: 96.5%
• Georgian Bay Township: 91.9%
• Grey Highlands: 96.0%
• Medford: 93.2%
• Tiny Township: 97.6%
• Wasaga Beach 97.8%