November Market Report
Sales Activity:
- November 2024 compared to November 2023 = +48.5%
- November 2024 compared to November 2022 = +47.1%
- November 2024 compared to November 2021 = -14.0%
- November 2024 compared to November 2019 = +4.1%
- November 2024 compared to November 2017 = -6.1%
- November 2024 compared to November 2014 = -7.8%
Inventory:
A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 49 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout November 2024 and a total of 218 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 22% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 78% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in November 2024. However, it is worth noting that due to an increase in unit sales and a decrease in standing inventory, the absorption rate increased from 15% to 22% in November (a healthy step towards a more balanced market).
- The Blue Mountains: 7%
- Clearview: 19%
- Collingwood: 14%
- Georgian Bay Township: 23%
- Grey Highlands: 22%
- Meaford: 17%
- Tiny Township: 11%
- Wasaga Beach: 22%
Most market analysts are anticipating the Bank of Canada to continue with rate cuts in the coming months and an increase of buyers reentering the housing market. As unit sales increase and inventory depletes, the absorption rate at that point will increase to find a balanced market, and perhaps even a shift back to a seller’s market. As we know from the past, shifting markets tend to move quickly and rarely do you hear a reference to being in a “balanced market“. Analysts and the provincial government have expressed concerns in the media stating that when the market returns, a “housing shortage” is inevitable until developers can build more homes in the province.
Value:
RE/MAX By The Bay Brokerage additionally monitors the “12-month average sales price” in addition to the monthly and year-to-date averages. However, since we are in the fourth quarter of 2024 there is sufficient data to reference the year-to-date average sales price to conclude the following month-over-month change from October 2024 to November 2024:
Wasaga Beach -0.58% ($755,324 in October 2024 vs $750,957 in November 2024)
Collingwood +0.82% ($935,890 in October 2024 vs $943,550 in November 2024)
The Blue Mountains +0.25% ($1,427,765 in October 2024 vs $1,431,367 in November 2024)
Clearview +0.05% ($1,073,711 in October 2024 vs $1,074,244 in November 2024)
In summary, all four (4) of the larger municipalities in Southern Georgian Bay concluded a less than 1% difference in the average price from October to November. Values are for the most part holding at this time, although if inventory continues to decrease in the winter months and unit sales continue to remain above seasonal averages, there is potential to see moderate increases in value with any improvement to the absorption rate (supply and demand).
- Town of Blue Mountains: 95.2%
- Clearview: 99.1% (note, 1 sale sold at 120% of asking which helped increase the monthly average).
- Collingwood: 96.4%
- Georgian Bay Township: 94.8%
- Grey Highlands: 95.0%
- Medford: 95.0%
- Tiny Township: 96.9%
- Wasaga Beach 97.0%
On average, the current sale-to-list ratio in OnePoint Simcoe – West (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach) is 96.5% with an approximate negotiation of -3.5% in Southern Georgian Bay.
