October Market Report
Sales Activity:
- October 2024 compared to October 2023 = +24%
- October 2024 compared to October 2022 = +24%
- October 2024 compared to October 2021 = -29%
- October 2024 compared to October 2019 = -21%
- October 2024 compared to October 2017 = -20%
- October 2024 compared to October 2014 = -23%
Inventory:
A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 42 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout October 2024 and a total of 287 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 15% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 85% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of October 2024.
- The Blue Mountains: 10%
- Clearview: 12%
- Collingwood: 16%
- Georgian Bay Township: 11%
- Grey Highlands: 11%
- Meaford: 17%
- Tiny Township: 15%
- Wasaga Beach: 15%
Most market analysts are anticipating the Bank of Canada to continue with rate cuts in the coming months and an increase of buyers reentering the housing market. As unit sales increase and inventory depletes, the absorption rate at that point will increase to find a balanced market, and perhaps even a shift back to a seller’s market. As we know from the past, shifting markets tend to move quickly and rarely do you hear a reference to being in a “balanced market“. Analysts and the provincial government have expressed concerns in the media stating that when the market returns, a “housing shortage” is inevitable until developers can build more homes in the province.
Value:
In comparison to previous years, the CREA report indicates that the average “year-to-date” sales price in October is comparable to one year ago in October 2023 (+0.2%), and down -11% from October 2022. Historically the average price in October 2024 also remains comparable to October 2021 (-0.4%), and up +59.6% from October 2019 (pre-pandemic).
RE/MAX By The Bay Brokerage additionally monitors the “12-month average sales price” in addition to the monthly and year-to-date averages. According to the 12-month average sale price figures, the average sales price concluded the following month-over-month change from September 2024 to October 2024:
Wasaga Beach -0.2% ($780,605 in September 2024 vs $779,047 in October 2024)
Collingwood -0.05% ($947,124 in September 2024 vs $946,680 in October 2024)
The Blue Mountains +2.46% ($1,443,158 in September 2024 vs $1,478,608 in October 2024)
Clearview -2.12% ($1,072,454 in September 2024 vs $1,049,709 in October 2024)
In summary, while Collingwood and Wasaga Beach maintained value with little change from the previous month (September to October), there was an increase in higher valued homes starting to sell in the Town of Blue Mountain area again which helped increase both on the “year-to-date” and “12-month” average price throughout October. Although notably, the Township of Clearview had the opposite adjustment and decrease to the average during the same period.
- Town of Blue Mountains: 94.7%
- Clearview: 97.3%
- Collingwood: 96.2%
- Georgian Bay Township: 93.1%
- Grey Highlands: 96.3%
- Medford: 93.3%
- Tiny Township: 96.7%
- Wasaga Beach 97.0%
On average, the current sale-to-list ratio in Lakelands West (The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach) is 95.58% with an approximate negotiation of -4.42% in Southern Georgian Bay.
