September Market Report
Sales Activity:
- September 2024 compared to September 2023 = +12%
- September 2024 compared to September 2022 = +26%
- September 2024 compared to September 2021 = -29%
- September 2024 compared to September 2019 = -24%
- September 2024 compared to September 2017 = -17%
- September 2024 compared to September 2014 = -19.8%
Inventory:
A common question asked in the real estate industry is “How’s the market“. While the correct answer is largely dependent on whether the person is interested in buying or selling a home, there are market indicators that help statistically define the pulse of the market. To answer this common question, the most important statistic to review is the current “absorption rate” for each municipality. This calculates the number of reported unit sales in a month in comparison to the total number of active listings. For example, there was a total of 45 unit sales in Wasaga Beach throughout September 2024 and a total of 320 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate for Wasaga Beach is approximately 14% indicating that the market at large is still a “buyer’s market” at this time. Approximately 86% of sellers unfortunately did not complete a sale in the month of September 2024.
Unfortunately, the market data continues to conclude that there is not a buyer for every home for sale at this time in 2024. However, the month of September did see a small increase in all municipal absorption rates with the exception of Meaford (there was an increase in Wasaga Beach, Collingwood, The Blue Mountains, Grey Highlands, Clearview, Tiny, and Georgian Bay Township). Most notably an increase in Grey Highlands where there was a total of 29 unit sales throughout September 2024 and a total of 84 active listings at the end of the month. The current absorption rate entering October for Grey Highlands is nearing a balanced market at approximately 35% at this time.
Included below is a list of current absorption rates for each of the local municipalities:
- The Blue Mountains: 7%
- Clearview: 13%
- Collingwood: 16%
- Georgian Bay Township: 10%
- Grey Highlands: 35%
- Meaford: 8%
- Tiny Township: 11%
- Wasaga Beach: 14%
Most market analysts are anticipating the Bank of Canada to continue with rate cuts in the coming months and an increase of buyers reentering the housing market. As unit sales increase and inventory depletes, the absorption rate at that point will increase to find a balanced market, and perhaps even a risk of shifting back to a seller’s market. As we know from the past, shifting markets tend to move quickly and rarely do you hear a reference of being in a “balanced market“.
Value:
The average sale price year-to-date in September 2024 for all of Lakelands West was $849,833 for a residential residence (all residential – The Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, and Wasaga Beach). This is a decrease of -1.1% from the previous month ($859,278 in August 2024) although notably back on par with July 2024 ($850,163).
In comparison to previous years, the CREA report indicates that the average “year-to-date” sales price in September is comparable to one year ago in September 2023 (-0.8%), and down -13.0% from September 2022. Historically the average price in September 2024 also remains comparable to September 2021 (-0.4%), and up +59.2% from September 2019 (pre-pandemic).
RE/MAX By The Bay Brokerage additionally monitors the “12-month average sales price” in addition to the monthly and year-to-date averages. According to the 12-month average sale price figures, the average sales price concluded the following month-over-month change from August 2024 to September 2024:
Wasaga Beach -2.0% ($796,517 in August 2024 vs $780,605 in September 2024)
Collingwood +1.14% ($936,436 in August 2024 vs $947,124 in September 2024)
The Blue Mountains 0.46% ($1,449,812 in August 2024 vs $1,443,158 in September 2024)
Clearview +7.47% ($997,943 in August 2024 vs $1,072,454 in September 2024)
In summary, while The Blue Mountains maintained value with little change from the previous month (August to September), other municipalities such as Wasaga Beach are still concluding a declining price adjustment both on the “year-to-date” and “12-month” average price. However, the average price in the Town of Collingwood increased by an impressive +1.14 based on the 12-month average and +1.15% based on the year-to-date average. This can be credited to an increase in above-average price ranges starting to sell again. And most notably, the Township of Clearview increased by +7.47% in only one months time based on the 12-month average and +6.41% based on the year-to-date average. However, the increase in Clearview is largely credited to two specific sales completed over $4M that were both reported within the month of September and had a notable impact on the price adjustment.
